As votes from two state elections were still being counted on Sunday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stood before a podium at the headquarters of his conservative party in Berlin. He was alone and that was evident.
Even before the full disaster of the ballots in Berlin and the former communist region of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern became clear, the 70-year-old sought to take the initiative. He called his reform agenda the antidote to the “authoritarian poison” spreading through the body politic. Pursuing changes to tax rates, pensions and healthcare would require “backbone, steadfastness and patience,” he said.
Then came the decisive message. After weeks of speculation about a potential ouster, he said he intended to continue to push ahead on those policies as CDU chairman and chancellor. It was a clear message to his political opponents that he would hang on for as long as possible.
In that moment on Sunday, Friedrich Merz became the living embodiment of status quo politics, clinging to power even though credibility is broken.
Across the West, you could find similar examples of political machines that have run out of fuel and continue on little more than inertia. That’s clear in the UK’s sputtering duopoly of Labour and the Tories, and the strange theater of centrist Democrats in the U.S. trying to thwart breakthrough progressive candidates rather than combining forces to defeat Republicans.
In Germany, the clearest message from this month’s series of state elections is that the political center is collapsing, leaving a vacuum for others to fill.
Read also: Germany’s Establishment Has Lost Control — Part 1
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, it was the usual narrative. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) surged, more than doubling support by tapping into anxiety over migration, war and social standing.
But in Berlin, voters fled in the other direction, propelling the left-wing Linke to victory in hopes of buying out large landlords and easing an affordability crisis, especially for young people. That shows the anti-establishment mood isn’t inherently nationalist.
By contrast, Merz’s conservatives, the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democrats — which have dominated postwar German politics for 80 years — lost a combined 22 percentage points of support in Berlin.
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the mainstream parties slumped 18 points, with the CDU suffering its worst-ever state election result and crashing out of the legislature.
In both elections, voters came out in droves to punish the center. Turnout jumped to 74.2% in Berlin and rose to 78.1% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The bulk of the new voters cast their ballots for either the AfD and the Linke, showing how frustration can drive political engagement.
Whether the shift will create a new basis for stability is questionable. Forming a government in either state won’t be easy. Both could end up with three-way, left-leaning coalitions involving the Linke, the Social Democrats and the Greens.
In Berlin, the SPD and the Greens could try to thwart the Linke and ally with the CDU. The battered condition of the centrist parties makes the political calculus even more complicated and sets the stage of infighting.
While the AfD will almost certainly be kept out of leadership in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern by what remains of the Brandmauer (or firewall) against the far right, the new coalition will have to show voters they can get things done or risk even deeper voter frustration.
What’s needed more than ineffective alliances is a bigger shift. Voters are ultimately responding to the tension between the rhetoric and reality of liberalism. The system promises freedom but doesn’t provide it.
For the vast majority, voting represents the extent of political agency and selling labor to billionaires and buying goods from billionaires are what amounts to economic choice. Social solidarity has been undermined more and more by simulated connection in the digital world.
That’s the deeper renewal Ground Up is advocating for, devolving power and providing paths for people to participate in public life in meaningful ways. That means workplace democracy and cooperative ownership to bolster economic agency, and citizen councils for real input in politics and communities.
Meanwhile, Merz continues as German chancellor, not because of his support but because he’s alone. There’s no direct challenger or obvious successor and so the government will plod on.
As the chancellor delivered his lonely speech on election night, I couldn’t help but be reminded of a quote by novelist Thomas Mann, expressing sympathy for his home country’s self-destructive tendencies.
“In the end, the German misfortune is only the paradigm of the tragedy of human life,” he said. “And the grace that Germany so sorely needs, my friends, all of us need it.”
That was in 1945, a few weeks after the end of the Nazi regime. At the time, Mann when was as old as Merz is now, and the good news is that Germany reinvented itself then and can do so again.
Full disclosure: On Sunday, in the Berlin election, I voted for Volt, because I see the pan-European progressive party as a potential force for positive political renewal. I also joined as a member and attended its election-night event, because things are too on edge to not get involved.
Volt fell well short of the 5% threshold, which shows how difficult it is to break down entrenched power structures even when they’re wobbling. But as Paul Loeper, one of the lead candidates, said: “Politics isn’t a sprint and it isn’t a marathon. It’s a relay.” Meaning that the baton has already passed forward to the next election race.